2017 NBA Playoffs First Round Preview
Pacers vs Cavaliers:
Cavaliers:
Price: -1100
FFR: +3.62, 7th
Offensive Four Factors Rating: +5.82, 3rd
eFG: 54.7% 2nd TOV: 12.6% 13th
ORB: 22% 20th FT/FGA: 20.6% 20th
Defensive Four Factors Rating: -2.21, 23rd
eFG: 51.6% 18th TOV: 11.4% 29th
DRB: 75.8% 23rd FT/FGA: 17.5% 3rd
Pacers:
Price: +650
FFR: +0.31, 13th
Offensive Four Factors Rating: -0.33, 14th
eFG: 51.6% 13th TOV: 12.7% 16th
ORB: 21.2% 25th FT/FGA: 21.2% 16th
Defensive Four Factors Rating: +0.65, 14th
eFG: 51.2% 15th TOV: 13.6% 6th
DRB: 75.4% 25th FT/FGA: 22.5% 25th
What the Cavaliers need to do:
The Cavaliers need to look at this series as the start of a new defense. They have been very bad defensively since the all-star break, and whatever fixes they had in mind need to be made now, and not next round or the round after when they really need it. The rebounding has been atrocious, but part of that is due to Love’s injuries. The defensive rebounding sees a slight downtick with Love sitting, which is expected, but the offensive rebounding falls off a cliff when Love isn’t on the court (26.5 to 17.9). Finding lineups that can be successful with Lebron sitting is still a need, and unless Lebron is planning on averaging 43+ minutes a game (totally a possibility), it is probably priority #1. Irving/Shumpert/Jefferson/Love/Thompson has had success in a small sample this season, and is probably their best bet unless JR Smith can regain some semblance of a rhythm. The Pacers shouldn’t be overlooked, but if the Cavaliers aren’t thinking about how to give themselves the best possible chance in rounds 2/3/4 now, it will be too late when the time comes.
How the Pacers can compete:
Both the Cavaliers and Pacers are just about average in terms of opponents eFG%, but the difference here is how effective these offenses will operate. The Cavaliers are the 2nd most efficient team from the field with a 54.7 eFG%. The Pacers on the other hand are just a tick above average from the field, and that will be the big difference in this series. If the Pacers want to have any chance at all in this series they will have to focus on evening the gap from the field. Paul George will be pivotal here as Lebron is the engine to the Cavaliers offense and containing his penetration is the first step to stopping the 3’s from raining. Indiana will need to stress guarding the PnR/P with 2 players rather the bringing a 3rd defender over. Switching is one way to guard the PnR/P, especially when the pop is the expected action. Having Thaddeus Young come up on the on-ball screen and switch while leaving Myles Turner to defend the paint regardless of which Cavalier big is screening should be a scheme they look at. The Pacers excel at forcing turnovers and they need to continue that trend to limit the number of Cavalier possessions that end in a shot.
Cavaliers in 6
Bucks vs Raptors
Raptors:
Price: -400
FFR: +5.68, 6th
Offensive Four Factors Rating: +3.55, 6th
eFG: 51.7% 12th TOV: 11.8% 5th
ORB: 25% 7th FT/FGA: 23.3% 1st
Defensive Four Factors Rating: +2.13, 7th
eFG: 50.7% 8th TOV: 13.6% 5th
DRB: 76.3% 16th FT/FGA: 22.3% 23rd
Bucks:
Price: +300
FFR: +1.06, 11th
Offensive Four Factors Rating: +1.34 13th
eFG: 52.8% 7th TOV: 13.2% 21st
ORB: 21.5% 23rd FT/FGA: 21% 18th
Defensive Four Factors Rating: -0.28, 16th
eFG: 51.8% 20th TOV: 13.6% 7th
DRB: 75.4% 26th FT/FGA: 21.5% 19th
Raptors need to test lineups:
The Raptors have played some great ball since the all-star break, and now that Lowry is back and already playing well the Raptors don’t need to stress integrating him and can instead look to find the ideal lineups for this and later rounds. Lowry has only played 4 games since Tucker and Ibaka joined the team and although the Bucks aren’t a team than can be overlooked, the Raptors should at times try to get some new lineups out there that haven’t seen enough time together. Lowry/DeRozan/Tucker/Patterson/Ibaka could very well be their best lineup and it’s only played 7 minutes. This series in particular gives the Raptors a chance to ty it when the Bucks don’t have Monroe on the court (or sometimes when he is on as well to test it’s viability against a bigger lineup). The Bucks are woeful on the defensive boards, so the Raptors should be able to make a living off 2nd chance points. Transition points should be available as well since the Bucks struggle to avoid turnovers while the Raptors have been forcing them at an elite rate. The only factor the Raptors struggle with is keeping opponents off the free throw line, but that shouldn’t be much of a problem this series with the Bucks being slightly below average at getting to the line themselves.
The short straw for the Bucks:
The Bucks pulled the short straw here, getting the 6th seed and playing arguably the strongest team in the first round. This matchup is especially tough as the Bucks weaknesses seem to fall right in line with the Raptors strengths while the Bucks strengths are where the Raptors excel. The Bucks are usually efficient from the field and that’s what drives their offense (below average in the other 3 of the 4 factors), while the Raptors just acquired two defensive first players in Tucker and Ibaka at the trade deadline. The Bucks defense thrives off forcing turnovers and turning that into efficient offense, but the Raptors are one of the least turnover prone teams in the league. Giannis Antetokounmpo is the best player in this series, so there is a chance. But this seems to me like the gaining experience year, while next year is when they have a good chance to make a deep run assuming better health. This year will be great experience for the young core and Kidd needs to makes sure to get them minutes (Thon Maker primarily, Malcolm Brogdon will surely be getting minutes) if the series gets out of hand.
Raptors in 5
Grizzlies vs Spurs
Spurs:
Price: -1000
FFR: +8.76, 2nd
Offensive Four Factors Rating: +2.46, 8th
eFG: 52.4% 10th TOV: 12.6% 15th
ORB: 24% 13th FT/FGA: 21% 17th
Defensive Four Factors Rating: +6.3, 1st
eFG: 49.2% 2nd TOV: 13.5% 9th
DRB: 77.6% 7th FT/FGA: 19.2% 6th
Grizzlies:
Price: +600
FFR: -0.37, 16th
Offensive Four Factors Rating: -2.51, 19th
eFG: 49.1% 28th TOV: 12.1% 7th
ORB: 24.7% 9th FT/FGA: 21.9% 11th
Defensive Four Factors Rating: +2.14, 6th
eFG: 50.6% 7th TOV: 13.6% 4th
DRB: 77.5% 8th FT/FGA: 25.6% 29th
Spurs should be prepared for (what feels like) a long series:
This isn’t an ideal matchup for San Antonio. They are without a doubt the better team, but they are going to feel the physicality of this series. Kawhi should be looking to make a statement this series, and he may have to. The Grizzlies have capable defenders all throughout their rotation (with a couple exceptions), and they are one of the better equipped teams to handle San Antonio’s way of playing (ball-movement, off-ball movement, quick decisions). If Kawhi can demand a double-team when he has the ball, then the Spurs get to play 4-on-3 off-ball. If the Grizzlies are able to do what they want, there won’t be easy shots at the rim often. The Grizzlies are top 10 in limiting shots at the rim while the Spurs are bottom 5 in getting those same shots. The Spurs are top 3 in long 2’s attempted, and the Grizzlies are top 3 in opponent FG% from that same range. So while the Spurs are without a doubt the more talented team coming in, both teams have reason to be confident.
The Case for the Grizzlies:
The case for the Memphis is simple, bully San Antonio similarly to how Oklahoma City did last season. Very unlikely that they do it to the point of success, but they of all teams are qualified to attempt it using that gameplan. They don’t have the shooting or athleticism that the Thunder did, but they do have a discernable matchup advantage at the point of attack in Mike Conley. He needs to assert himself offensively here as the best backcourt player in this series. Zach Randolph will be a big factor off the bench as the Spurs don’t have a ton of answers for him. He will have his way with players like David Lee down low where even when he doesn’t finish the first shot, he will have a good chance at corralling an offensive board for 2nd chance points. Finding Randolph an extra 5 minutes per game should happen as well assuming the Spurs have trouble with him. Lastly turnovers, an area the Spurs are usually very good at limiting. They are average this season in limiting turnovers, and that is something the Grizzlies have to take advantage of. They are top 5 in forcing turnovers this season and that must continue to allow them to get easy buckets against what is otherwise a very dominant Spurs defense.
Spurs in 6
Jazz vs Clippers
Clippers:
Price: -220
FFR: +6.15, 4th
Offensive Four Factors Rating: +5.45, 4th
eFG: 53.7% 4th TOV: 12.1% 6th
ORB: 21.5% 22nd FT/FGA: 23.3% 3rd
Defensive Four Factors Rating: +0.7, 13th
eFG: 50.6% 6th TOV: 12.2% 21st
DRB: 76.9% 10th FT/FGA: 21.1% 13th
Jazz:
Price: +180
FFR: +5.9, 5th
Offensive Four Factors Rating: +1.9, 10th
eFG: 52.6 7th TOV: 13.2 21st
ORB: 23.2 16th FT/FGA: 21.5 12th
Defensive Four Factors Rating: +4.01, 3rd
eFG: 49.3 3rd TOV: 11.8 25th
DRB: 78.9 4th FT/FGA: 19.5 9th
What could be the last run for the Clippers:
The Clippers come into this series knowing they don’t have much guaranteed time left together, and how much time they will have in the future as a group depends solely on the outcome of this playoff run. They enter this series in as close as a toss-up as I can remember for a first round series. The Clippers make their living on the offensive end manufacturing easy looks for shooters and easy lobs for dunkers with great off-ball movement and screening. They are elite at limiting turnovers because Chris Paul is otherworldly at him himself and he makes a lot of decisions in this offense. That isn’t likely to change here with the Jazz ranking 25th at forcing turnovers. Offensive rebounds will be hard to come by with Utah dominating their defensive glass, so limiting transition opportunities shouldn’t be a problem if the Clippers realize the futility of sending multiple men to the offensive boards (hello 80’s basketball).
Utah needs to learn on the fly:
Although this series is a toss-up, there is something the Clippers have that the Jazz somewhat lack, and that is playoff experience. Gobert has never been in the playoffs while Favors, Hayward, and Burks have one short sweep at the hands of the Spurs years ago. Hill, Diaw, and Johnson bring experience, but they don’t have the kind of continuity that the Clippers core has. There isn’t an obvious point of attack against the Clippers defense, but playing big and not allowing the Clippers to get by with Speights guarding Gobert will be a difference maker. Off-ball communication will be key defensively as the Clippers run Redick off screen after screen. Limiting teams 2nd chance points is something the Jazz have been good about, and they will need to continue that trend here as this Clippers offense is already going to miss fewer shots than most teams. Winning a game early would be a huge boost to the Jazz mentally and could rock what has been at times this season has been a locker room filled with contempt.
Clippers in 7
Hawks vs Wizards
Wizards:
Price: -220
FFR: +1.48, 10th
Offensive Four Factors Rating: +2.52, 7th
eFG: 52.8 6th TOV: 12.8 17th
ORB: 24 14th FT/FGA: 19.9 22nd
Defensive Four Factors Rating: -1.04, 20th
eFG: 52.4 24th TOV: 13.8 13th
DRB: 75.5 24th FT/FGA: 21.3 16th
Hawks:
Price: +180
FFR: -0.06, 15th
Offensive Four Factors Rating: -3.46, 25th
eFG: 50.4% 20th TOV: 14.2% 28th
ORB: 23.7% 15th FT/FGA: 21.4% 14th
Defensive Four Factors Rating: +3.4, 4th
eFG: 50.7% 9th TOV: 13.8% 2nd
DRB: 76.1% 19th FT/FGA: 17.9% 5th
Will Offense prevail for Wizards?
This series is the battle of the Wizards offense vs the Hawks defense, but I think the way the Wizards can turn the tides in their favor is leveraging the Hawks turnover-prone offense into as many transition opportunities as possible. The Wizards aren’t top 10 in forcing turnovers, but you don’t need to be do be successful there against this Hawks team. On the other end of the court the Wizards needs to avoid turnovers at all cost. The Hawks are elite at forcing them and will be their only real chance at a consistent efficient offense through transition opportunities. Finding efficient shots isn’t an easy task vs the Hawks inside the arc, but they do give up a lot of threes. A large portion of the threes the Hawks give up are from the corner as well. The Wizards haven’t shot well on corner 3’s this season, but it’s still a great shot regardless.
Will Defense dominate for Hawks?
The Hawks come in knowing their defense got them here and they know it’s what will give them a chance at getting back to the 2nd round. The most important thing for the Hawks is forcing turnovers. It will give them a consistent diet of easy shots if they can get out and run. Dwight Howard can come in and make an impact in two different ways in this series. Deterring easy looks at the rim for the Wizards offense is the most important, and he has been doing a good job of that all season. The 2nd way Dwight can make an impact is on the offensive glass. There will be plenty of opportunities for offensive boards and shots after offensive rebounds are some of the most efficient shots you can find.
Wizards in 6
Trail Blazers vs Warriors
Warriors:
Price: -10000
FFR: +14.49, 1st
Offensive Four Factors Rating: +8.35, 1st
eFG: 56.3% 1st TOV: 13.2% 19th
ORB: 22.8% 18th FT/FGA: 20.4% 21st
Defensive Four Factors Rating: +6.15, 2nd
eFG: 48.5% 1st TOV: 13.5% 8th
DRB: 74.9% 29th FT/FGA: 19.8% 11th
Trail Blazers:
Price: +2200
FFR: +0.15, 14th
Offensive Four Factors Rating: +1.56, 12th
eFG: 52% 11th TOV: 12.5% 12th
ORB: 23% 17th FT/FGA: 21.4% 15th
Defensive Four Factors Rating: -1.41, 21st
eFG: 50.8% 11th TOV: 11.6% 27th
DRB: 76.8% 12th FT/FGA: 24.1% 28th
Warriors begin quest for redemption:
The Warriors enter the playoffs as the highest rated team in league history by Four Factors Rating at +14.49, and they shouldn’t have much trouble dispatching of the average Trail Blazers. They should use these games as a chance to get Durant and Curry rolling together. Introducing some 1/3 PnR (or 1/4 if Durant is there) into the offense will have defenses scrambling to cover what is probably the most deadly 2-man game ever. The Trail Blazers defense is ill-equipped to stop anything the Warriors like to do offensively, and this will likely be a quick series as a result.
Up against a juggernaut:
I haven’t fact-checked this, but the differential between these two teams by FFR is probably the largest ever. The Trail Blazers played well to end the season despite the injury to Jusuf Nurkic, but even with a healthy Nurkic they would be overmatched in this series. If Nurkic is able to return at some point then he will be the key to the Trail Blazers stealing games. Lillard and McCollum are their best players, but Nurkic is the one who has a chance at forcing the Warriors to play big. Draymond is an adept defender, but he will have his hands full with Nurkic and im not sure the Warriors want to subject him to that kind of pounding this early in the playoffs. Nurkic probably won’t dominate the matchup, but making it uncomfortable might be enough.
Warriors in 4
Bulls vs Celtics
Celtics:
Price: -500
FFR: +3.24, 8th
Offensive Four Factors Rating: +2.37, 9th
eFG: 52.5% 9th TOV: 12.2% 9th
ORB: 21.2% 24th FT/FGA: 22% 9th
Defensive Four Factors Rating: +0.87, 12th
eFG: 50.3% 5th TOV: 12.6% 17th
DRB: 75.4% 27th FT/FGA: 22.3% 24th
Bulls:
Price: +350
FFR: -1.14, 19th
Offensive Four Factors Rating: -2.93, 22nd
eFG: 48.7% 30th TOV: 12.2% 9th
ORB: 27% 4th FT/FGA: 20.6% 19th
Defensive Four Factors Rating: +1.78, 8th
eFG: 50.7% 10th TOV: 12.4% 19th
DRB: 76.8% 11th FT/FGA: 16.9% 2nd
Keeping a lopsided series short:
The Celtics enter this series as a heavy favorite despite some seeing this as a potential upset. The Celtics have the perimeter defenders to neutralize Chicago’s only real consistent weapon at this in Jimmy Butler. The Celtics score efficiently from the field and don’t turn the ball over. The Bulls defense has been good at defending from the field, but they don’t force many turnovers. This is going to really hurt them when they aren’t able to generate consistent looks offensively and have few fast break points to bolster efficiency. The Celtics defense is top 5 in limiting efficiency from the floor while the Bulls are the least efficient offense from the field. If Jimmy Butler is guarding IT, it really is going to wear on him should this series go the distance. Chasing Thomas around and being the first option on offense is a huge workload. The Celtics have many reasons to think this series will be short, and as long as they go out and execute to the level Coach Stevens expects, it will be.
Keep it competitive to stop the Heat talk:
The Bulls come into the series splitting the season series 2-2, but one big advantage they had isn’t as much of a strength anymore. With the trade of Taj Gibson the Bulls have up his interior presence for more minutes and shooting from Mirotic. The Celtics have perimeter bulldogs in Bradley and Smart, and Butler isn’t going to see much open space with one of them or Crowder on him. Wade will get whichever isn’t on Butler. 2nd chance points will still be available, but not at quite the rate they would have been had that trade deadline deal not gone down. Not turning the ball over will be pivotal in any upset attempt as they will already be playing catch-up from the vast difference in expected eFG% and they need as many possessions ending in at least one shot attempt as possible to do so. One possible strategy for the Bulls would be to just give the Celtics anywhere to hide Thomas. This probably means sacrificing even more spacing in a lineup like Wade/Butler/Zipser/Mirotic/Lopez with the hope that they can muck up the game to the point of an upset.
Celtics in 5
Thunder vs Rockets
Rockets:
Price: -380
FFR: +6.32, 3rd
Offensive Four Factors Rating: +6.73, 2nd
eFG: 54.5% 3rd TOV: 13.3% 24th
ORB: 24.6% 10th FT/FGA: 23.3% 2nd
Defensive Four Factors Rating: -0.4, 18th
eFG: 51.9% 21st TOV: 13.2% 11th
DRB: 75.8% 21st FT/FGA: 19.4% 8th
Thunder:
Price: +290
FFR: +0.32, 12th
Offensive Four Factors Rating: -0.78, 16th
eFG: 50% 24th TOV: 13.2% 23rd
ORB: 28% 1st FT/FGA: 22% 8th
Defensive Four Factors Rating: +1.1, 11th
eFG: 51.1% 13th TOV: 11.7% 18th
DRB: 74.1% 3rd FT/FGA: 21.4% 20th
How the Rockets blast into the 2nd round:
James Harden and the Rockets they wish transpired before MVP voting. It’s important that Harden continues to play the game he has played all season without getting caught up in a MVP one-upping contest. The Thunder defense is primarily reliant on ending possessions after the first miss. They are average at forcing that first miss in the first place. The Rockets are decent at getting offensive rebounds, but sending more than 2 people consistently (whichever of Capela/Nene/Harrell and Beverley) is just asking to give up easy transition points to Westbrook. Force Westbrook to box out Beverley (not doing so already cost the Thunder a game this season), and get all the other guards/wings back to set up the defense early. Dekker’s longer than anticipated recovery will force recently signed Troy Williams into playoff minutes, but he has shot well so far in his stint with Houston after not doing so in his time with Memphis. The Rockets will just have to hope he is capable of giving enough minutes to be the 8th man in the rotation. I suspect the Rockets will go to Nene primarily as the backup center with the amount of size the Thunder are capable of having at times on the interior. The Rockets have a 77.5 DRB% with Nene on the court and 72.5% with Harrell. The Rockets need to not make this series harder than it needs to be by boxing out and rebounding as a team on defense to end possessions. The Thunder aren’t dangerous on the first attempt, but it’s the unrelenting attack on the offensive glass that gets them points.
Can Westbrook keep up the triple doubles, and should he?
Westbrook can come into this series knowing he accomplished what he set out to do during the regular season with his triple doubles, but now he needs to decide if that really is the team’s best chance to win the game. Beverley is known for his tenacity on the offensive boards, and leaving it up to beating him to the ball rather than boxing someone out historically hasn’t been the right basketball play. The way for the Thunder to win this series is by killing the offensive boards. Houston plays small and they struggle on the defensive boards. The role players need to be ready to knock down their open shots because Westbrook will see a lot of help defense early and often. Perimeter defenders need to be disciplined as both Harden and Lou Williams are adept at drawing shooting fouls out of a handcheck. Roberson in particular is by far the Thunder’s best chance at slowing down Harden, and early foul trouble for him could mean a long game for Oklahoma City.
Rockets in 6
Cavaliers:
Price: -1100
FFR: +3.62, 7th
Offensive Four Factors Rating: +5.82, 3rd
eFG: 54.7% 2nd TOV: 12.6% 13th
ORB: 22% 20th FT/FGA: 20.6% 20th
Defensive Four Factors Rating: -2.21, 23rd
eFG: 51.6% 18th TOV: 11.4% 29th
DRB: 75.8% 23rd FT/FGA: 17.5% 3rd
Pacers:
Price: +650
FFR: +0.31, 13th
Offensive Four Factors Rating: -0.33, 14th
eFG: 51.6% 13th TOV: 12.7% 16th
ORB: 21.2% 25th FT/FGA: 21.2% 16th
Defensive Four Factors Rating: +0.65, 14th
eFG: 51.2% 15th TOV: 13.6% 6th
DRB: 75.4% 25th FT/FGA: 22.5% 25th
What the Cavaliers need to do:
The Cavaliers need to look at this series as the start of a new defense. They have been very bad defensively since the all-star break, and whatever fixes they had in mind need to be made now, and not next round or the round after when they really need it. The rebounding has been atrocious, but part of that is due to Love’s injuries. The defensive rebounding sees a slight downtick with Love sitting, which is expected, but the offensive rebounding falls off a cliff when Love isn’t on the court (26.5 to 17.9). Finding lineups that can be successful with Lebron sitting is still a need, and unless Lebron is planning on averaging 43+ minutes a game (totally a possibility), it is probably priority #1. Irving/Shumpert/Jefferson/Love/Thompson has had success in a small sample this season, and is probably their best bet unless JR Smith can regain some semblance of a rhythm. The Pacers shouldn’t be overlooked, but if the Cavaliers aren’t thinking about how to give themselves the best possible chance in rounds 2/3/4 now, it will be too late when the time comes.
How the Pacers can compete:
Both the Cavaliers and Pacers are just about average in terms of opponents eFG%, but the difference here is how effective these offenses will operate. The Cavaliers are the 2nd most efficient team from the field with a 54.7 eFG%. The Pacers on the other hand are just a tick above average from the field, and that will be the big difference in this series. If the Pacers want to have any chance at all in this series they will have to focus on evening the gap from the field. Paul George will be pivotal here as Lebron is the engine to the Cavaliers offense and containing his penetration is the first step to stopping the 3’s from raining. Indiana will need to stress guarding the PnR/P with 2 players rather the bringing a 3rd defender over. Switching is one way to guard the PnR/P, especially when the pop is the expected action. Having Thaddeus Young come up on the on-ball screen and switch while leaving Myles Turner to defend the paint regardless of which Cavalier big is screening should be a scheme they look at. The Pacers excel at forcing turnovers and they need to continue that trend to limit the number of Cavalier possessions that end in a shot.
Cavaliers in 6
Bucks vs Raptors
Raptors:
Price: -400
FFR: +5.68, 6th
Offensive Four Factors Rating: +3.55, 6th
eFG: 51.7% 12th TOV: 11.8% 5th
ORB: 25% 7th FT/FGA: 23.3% 1st
Defensive Four Factors Rating: +2.13, 7th
eFG: 50.7% 8th TOV: 13.6% 5th
DRB: 76.3% 16th FT/FGA: 22.3% 23rd
Bucks:
Price: +300
FFR: +1.06, 11th
Offensive Four Factors Rating: +1.34 13th
eFG: 52.8% 7th TOV: 13.2% 21st
ORB: 21.5% 23rd FT/FGA: 21% 18th
Defensive Four Factors Rating: -0.28, 16th
eFG: 51.8% 20th TOV: 13.6% 7th
DRB: 75.4% 26th FT/FGA: 21.5% 19th
Raptors need to test lineups:
The Raptors have played some great ball since the all-star break, and now that Lowry is back and already playing well the Raptors don’t need to stress integrating him and can instead look to find the ideal lineups for this and later rounds. Lowry has only played 4 games since Tucker and Ibaka joined the team and although the Bucks aren’t a team than can be overlooked, the Raptors should at times try to get some new lineups out there that haven’t seen enough time together. Lowry/DeRozan/Tucker/Patterson/Ibaka could very well be their best lineup and it’s only played 7 minutes. This series in particular gives the Raptors a chance to ty it when the Bucks don’t have Monroe on the court (or sometimes when he is on as well to test it’s viability against a bigger lineup). The Bucks are woeful on the defensive boards, so the Raptors should be able to make a living off 2nd chance points. Transition points should be available as well since the Bucks struggle to avoid turnovers while the Raptors have been forcing them at an elite rate. The only factor the Raptors struggle with is keeping opponents off the free throw line, but that shouldn’t be much of a problem this series with the Bucks being slightly below average at getting to the line themselves.
The short straw for the Bucks:
The Bucks pulled the short straw here, getting the 6th seed and playing arguably the strongest team in the first round. This matchup is especially tough as the Bucks weaknesses seem to fall right in line with the Raptors strengths while the Bucks strengths are where the Raptors excel. The Bucks are usually efficient from the field and that’s what drives their offense (below average in the other 3 of the 4 factors), while the Raptors just acquired two defensive first players in Tucker and Ibaka at the trade deadline. The Bucks defense thrives off forcing turnovers and turning that into efficient offense, but the Raptors are one of the least turnover prone teams in the league. Giannis Antetokounmpo is the best player in this series, so there is a chance. But this seems to me like the gaining experience year, while next year is when they have a good chance to make a deep run assuming better health. This year will be great experience for the young core and Kidd needs to makes sure to get them minutes (Thon Maker primarily, Malcolm Brogdon will surely be getting minutes) if the series gets out of hand.
Raptors in 5
Grizzlies vs Spurs
Spurs:
Price: -1000
FFR: +8.76, 2nd
Offensive Four Factors Rating: +2.46, 8th
eFG: 52.4% 10th TOV: 12.6% 15th
ORB: 24% 13th FT/FGA: 21% 17th
Defensive Four Factors Rating: +6.3, 1st
eFG: 49.2% 2nd TOV: 13.5% 9th
DRB: 77.6% 7th FT/FGA: 19.2% 6th
Grizzlies:
Price: +600
FFR: -0.37, 16th
Offensive Four Factors Rating: -2.51, 19th
eFG: 49.1% 28th TOV: 12.1% 7th
ORB: 24.7% 9th FT/FGA: 21.9% 11th
Defensive Four Factors Rating: +2.14, 6th
eFG: 50.6% 7th TOV: 13.6% 4th
DRB: 77.5% 8th FT/FGA: 25.6% 29th
Spurs should be prepared for (what feels like) a long series:
This isn’t an ideal matchup for San Antonio. They are without a doubt the better team, but they are going to feel the physicality of this series. Kawhi should be looking to make a statement this series, and he may have to. The Grizzlies have capable defenders all throughout their rotation (with a couple exceptions), and they are one of the better equipped teams to handle San Antonio’s way of playing (ball-movement, off-ball movement, quick decisions). If Kawhi can demand a double-team when he has the ball, then the Spurs get to play 4-on-3 off-ball. If the Grizzlies are able to do what they want, there won’t be easy shots at the rim often. The Grizzlies are top 10 in limiting shots at the rim while the Spurs are bottom 5 in getting those same shots. The Spurs are top 3 in long 2’s attempted, and the Grizzlies are top 3 in opponent FG% from that same range. So while the Spurs are without a doubt the more talented team coming in, both teams have reason to be confident.
The Case for the Grizzlies:
The case for the Memphis is simple, bully San Antonio similarly to how Oklahoma City did last season. Very unlikely that they do it to the point of success, but they of all teams are qualified to attempt it using that gameplan. They don’t have the shooting or athleticism that the Thunder did, but they do have a discernable matchup advantage at the point of attack in Mike Conley. He needs to assert himself offensively here as the best backcourt player in this series. Zach Randolph will be a big factor off the bench as the Spurs don’t have a ton of answers for him. He will have his way with players like David Lee down low where even when he doesn’t finish the first shot, he will have a good chance at corralling an offensive board for 2nd chance points. Finding Randolph an extra 5 minutes per game should happen as well assuming the Spurs have trouble with him. Lastly turnovers, an area the Spurs are usually very good at limiting. They are average this season in limiting turnovers, and that is something the Grizzlies have to take advantage of. They are top 5 in forcing turnovers this season and that must continue to allow them to get easy buckets against what is otherwise a very dominant Spurs defense.
Spurs in 6
Jazz vs Clippers
Clippers:
Price: -220
FFR: +6.15, 4th
Offensive Four Factors Rating: +5.45, 4th
eFG: 53.7% 4th TOV: 12.1% 6th
ORB: 21.5% 22nd FT/FGA: 23.3% 3rd
Defensive Four Factors Rating: +0.7, 13th
eFG: 50.6% 6th TOV: 12.2% 21st
DRB: 76.9% 10th FT/FGA: 21.1% 13th
Jazz:
Price: +180
FFR: +5.9, 5th
Offensive Four Factors Rating: +1.9, 10th
eFG: 52.6 7th TOV: 13.2 21st
ORB: 23.2 16th FT/FGA: 21.5 12th
Defensive Four Factors Rating: +4.01, 3rd
eFG: 49.3 3rd TOV: 11.8 25th
DRB: 78.9 4th FT/FGA: 19.5 9th
What could be the last run for the Clippers:
The Clippers come into this series knowing they don’t have much guaranteed time left together, and how much time they will have in the future as a group depends solely on the outcome of this playoff run. They enter this series in as close as a toss-up as I can remember for a first round series. The Clippers make their living on the offensive end manufacturing easy looks for shooters and easy lobs for dunkers with great off-ball movement and screening. They are elite at limiting turnovers because Chris Paul is otherworldly at him himself and he makes a lot of decisions in this offense. That isn’t likely to change here with the Jazz ranking 25th at forcing turnovers. Offensive rebounds will be hard to come by with Utah dominating their defensive glass, so limiting transition opportunities shouldn’t be a problem if the Clippers realize the futility of sending multiple men to the offensive boards (hello 80’s basketball).
Utah needs to learn on the fly:
Although this series is a toss-up, there is something the Clippers have that the Jazz somewhat lack, and that is playoff experience. Gobert has never been in the playoffs while Favors, Hayward, and Burks have one short sweep at the hands of the Spurs years ago. Hill, Diaw, and Johnson bring experience, but they don’t have the kind of continuity that the Clippers core has. There isn’t an obvious point of attack against the Clippers defense, but playing big and not allowing the Clippers to get by with Speights guarding Gobert will be a difference maker. Off-ball communication will be key defensively as the Clippers run Redick off screen after screen. Limiting teams 2nd chance points is something the Jazz have been good about, and they will need to continue that trend here as this Clippers offense is already going to miss fewer shots than most teams. Winning a game early would be a huge boost to the Jazz mentally and could rock what has been at times this season has been a locker room filled with contempt.
Clippers in 7
Hawks vs Wizards
Wizards:
Price: -220
FFR: +1.48, 10th
Offensive Four Factors Rating: +2.52, 7th
eFG: 52.8 6th TOV: 12.8 17th
ORB: 24 14th FT/FGA: 19.9 22nd
Defensive Four Factors Rating: -1.04, 20th
eFG: 52.4 24th TOV: 13.8 13th
DRB: 75.5 24th FT/FGA: 21.3 16th
Hawks:
Price: +180
FFR: -0.06, 15th
Offensive Four Factors Rating: -3.46, 25th
eFG: 50.4% 20th TOV: 14.2% 28th
ORB: 23.7% 15th FT/FGA: 21.4% 14th
Defensive Four Factors Rating: +3.4, 4th
eFG: 50.7% 9th TOV: 13.8% 2nd
DRB: 76.1% 19th FT/FGA: 17.9% 5th
Will Offense prevail for Wizards?
This series is the battle of the Wizards offense vs the Hawks defense, but I think the way the Wizards can turn the tides in their favor is leveraging the Hawks turnover-prone offense into as many transition opportunities as possible. The Wizards aren’t top 10 in forcing turnovers, but you don’t need to be do be successful there against this Hawks team. On the other end of the court the Wizards needs to avoid turnovers at all cost. The Hawks are elite at forcing them and will be their only real chance at a consistent efficient offense through transition opportunities. Finding efficient shots isn’t an easy task vs the Hawks inside the arc, but they do give up a lot of threes. A large portion of the threes the Hawks give up are from the corner as well. The Wizards haven’t shot well on corner 3’s this season, but it’s still a great shot regardless.
Will Defense dominate for Hawks?
The Hawks come in knowing their defense got them here and they know it’s what will give them a chance at getting back to the 2nd round. The most important thing for the Hawks is forcing turnovers. It will give them a consistent diet of easy shots if they can get out and run. Dwight Howard can come in and make an impact in two different ways in this series. Deterring easy looks at the rim for the Wizards offense is the most important, and he has been doing a good job of that all season. The 2nd way Dwight can make an impact is on the offensive glass. There will be plenty of opportunities for offensive boards and shots after offensive rebounds are some of the most efficient shots you can find.
Wizards in 6
Trail Blazers vs Warriors
Warriors:
Price: -10000
FFR: +14.49, 1st
Offensive Four Factors Rating: +8.35, 1st
eFG: 56.3% 1st TOV: 13.2% 19th
ORB: 22.8% 18th FT/FGA: 20.4% 21st
Defensive Four Factors Rating: +6.15, 2nd
eFG: 48.5% 1st TOV: 13.5% 8th
DRB: 74.9% 29th FT/FGA: 19.8% 11th
Trail Blazers:
Price: +2200
FFR: +0.15, 14th
Offensive Four Factors Rating: +1.56, 12th
eFG: 52% 11th TOV: 12.5% 12th
ORB: 23% 17th FT/FGA: 21.4% 15th
Defensive Four Factors Rating: -1.41, 21st
eFG: 50.8% 11th TOV: 11.6% 27th
DRB: 76.8% 12th FT/FGA: 24.1% 28th
Warriors begin quest for redemption:
The Warriors enter the playoffs as the highest rated team in league history by Four Factors Rating at +14.49, and they shouldn’t have much trouble dispatching of the average Trail Blazers. They should use these games as a chance to get Durant and Curry rolling together. Introducing some 1/3 PnR (or 1/4 if Durant is there) into the offense will have defenses scrambling to cover what is probably the most deadly 2-man game ever. The Trail Blazers defense is ill-equipped to stop anything the Warriors like to do offensively, and this will likely be a quick series as a result.
Up against a juggernaut:
I haven’t fact-checked this, but the differential between these two teams by FFR is probably the largest ever. The Trail Blazers played well to end the season despite the injury to Jusuf Nurkic, but even with a healthy Nurkic they would be overmatched in this series. If Nurkic is able to return at some point then he will be the key to the Trail Blazers stealing games. Lillard and McCollum are their best players, but Nurkic is the one who has a chance at forcing the Warriors to play big. Draymond is an adept defender, but he will have his hands full with Nurkic and im not sure the Warriors want to subject him to that kind of pounding this early in the playoffs. Nurkic probably won’t dominate the matchup, but making it uncomfortable might be enough.
Warriors in 4
Bulls vs Celtics
Celtics:
Price: -500
FFR: +3.24, 8th
Offensive Four Factors Rating: +2.37, 9th
eFG: 52.5% 9th TOV: 12.2% 9th
ORB: 21.2% 24th FT/FGA: 22% 9th
Defensive Four Factors Rating: +0.87, 12th
eFG: 50.3% 5th TOV: 12.6% 17th
DRB: 75.4% 27th FT/FGA: 22.3% 24th
Bulls:
Price: +350
FFR: -1.14, 19th
Offensive Four Factors Rating: -2.93, 22nd
eFG: 48.7% 30th TOV: 12.2% 9th
ORB: 27% 4th FT/FGA: 20.6% 19th
Defensive Four Factors Rating: +1.78, 8th
eFG: 50.7% 10th TOV: 12.4% 19th
DRB: 76.8% 11th FT/FGA: 16.9% 2nd
Keeping a lopsided series short:
The Celtics enter this series as a heavy favorite despite some seeing this as a potential upset. The Celtics have the perimeter defenders to neutralize Chicago’s only real consistent weapon at this in Jimmy Butler. The Celtics score efficiently from the field and don’t turn the ball over. The Bulls defense has been good at defending from the field, but they don’t force many turnovers. This is going to really hurt them when they aren’t able to generate consistent looks offensively and have few fast break points to bolster efficiency. The Celtics defense is top 5 in limiting efficiency from the floor while the Bulls are the least efficient offense from the field. If Jimmy Butler is guarding IT, it really is going to wear on him should this series go the distance. Chasing Thomas around and being the first option on offense is a huge workload. The Celtics have many reasons to think this series will be short, and as long as they go out and execute to the level Coach Stevens expects, it will be.
Keep it competitive to stop the Heat talk:
The Bulls come into the series splitting the season series 2-2, but one big advantage they had isn’t as much of a strength anymore. With the trade of Taj Gibson the Bulls have up his interior presence for more minutes and shooting from Mirotic. The Celtics have perimeter bulldogs in Bradley and Smart, and Butler isn’t going to see much open space with one of them or Crowder on him. Wade will get whichever isn’t on Butler. 2nd chance points will still be available, but not at quite the rate they would have been had that trade deadline deal not gone down. Not turning the ball over will be pivotal in any upset attempt as they will already be playing catch-up from the vast difference in expected eFG% and they need as many possessions ending in at least one shot attempt as possible to do so. One possible strategy for the Bulls would be to just give the Celtics anywhere to hide Thomas. This probably means sacrificing even more spacing in a lineup like Wade/Butler/Zipser/Mirotic/Lopez with the hope that they can muck up the game to the point of an upset.
Celtics in 5
Thunder vs Rockets
Rockets:
Price: -380
FFR: +6.32, 3rd
Offensive Four Factors Rating: +6.73, 2nd
eFG: 54.5% 3rd TOV: 13.3% 24th
ORB: 24.6% 10th FT/FGA: 23.3% 2nd
Defensive Four Factors Rating: -0.4, 18th
eFG: 51.9% 21st TOV: 13.2% 11th
DRB: 75.8% 21st FT/FGA: 19.4% 8th
Thunder:
Price: +290
FFR: +0.32, 12th
Offensive Four Factors Rating: -0.78, 16th
eFG: 50% 24th TOV: 13.2% 23rd
ORB: 28% 1st FT/FGA: 22% 8th
Defensive Four Factors Rating: +1.1, 11th
eFG: 51.1% 13th TOV: 11.7% 18th
DRB: 74.1% 3rd FT/FGA: 21.4% 20th
How the Rockets blast into the 2nd round:
James Harden and the Rockets they wish transpired before MVP voting. It’s important that Harden continues to play the game he has played all season without getting caught up in a MVP one-upping contest. The Thunder defense is primarily reliant on ending possessions after the first miss. They are average at forcing that first miss in the first place. The Rockets are decent at getting offensive rebounds, but sending more than 2 people consistently (whichever of Capela/Nene/Harrell and Beverley) is just asking to give up easy transition points to Westbrook. Force Westbrook to box out Beverley (not doing so already cost the Thunder a game this season), and get all the other guards/wings back to set up the defense early. Dekker’s longer than anticipated recovery will force recently signed Troy Williams into playoff minutes, but he has shot well so far in his stint with Houston after not doing so in his time with Memphis. The Rockets will just have to hope he is capable of giving enough minutes to be the 8th man in the rotation. I suspect the Rockets will go to Nene primarily as the backup center with the amount of size the Thunder are capable of having at times on the interior. The Rockets have a 77.5 DRB% with Nene on the court and 72.5% with Harrell. The Rockets need to not make this series harder than it needs to be by boxing out and rebounding as a team on defense to end possessions. The Thunder aren’t dangerous on the first attempt, but it’s the unrelenting attack on the offensive glass that gets them points.
Can Westbrook keep up the triple doubles, and should he?
Westbrook can come into this series knowing he accomplished what he set out to do during the regular season with his triple doubles, but now he needs to decide if that really is the team’s best chance to win the game. Beverley is known for his tenacity on the offensive boards, and leaving it up to beating him to the ball rather than boxing someone out historically hasn’t been the right basketball play. The way for the Thunder to win this series is by killing the offensive boards. Houston plays small and they struggle on the defensive boards. The role players need to be ready to knock down their open shots because Westbrook will see a lot of help defense early and often. Perimeter defenders need to be disciplined as both Harden and Lou Williams are adept at drawing shooting fouls out of a handcheck. Roberson in particular is by far the Thunder’s best chance at slowing down Harden, and early foul trouble for him could mean a long game for Oklahoma City.
Rockets in 6